multiplication rule for conditional probability

Ross - A First Course in Probability.pdf, p 106


The probability of two events occurring simultaneously can be expressed by rewriting the definition of conditional probability as

P(AB)=P(AB)P(B)=P(BA)P(A)

The probability of the intersection of an arbitrary number of events is given by

P(i=1nEi)=P(E1)P(E2E1)P(E3E1E2)P(EnE1En1)

without loss of generality to the index of E.


Proof

By the definition of conditional probability,

P(AB)=P(AB)P(B)

Applying this to the right side of the multiplication rule gives

P(E1)P(E1E2)P(E1)P(E1E2E3)P(E1E2)P(i=1nEi)P(i=1n1Ei)

such that all terms cancel to give the left side of the multiplication rule.

QED.


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